The Lull Before the Shatter
How Normalcy Becomes a Spell—and Why We Must Wake Before It Breaks
Welcome back, my dear defenders of justice,
I hope this message finds you grounded, breathing, and holding onto hope—however small or fleeting it might feel right now. If no one has reminded you lately: your voice matters. You matter. Just by waking up and doing your best to move through the day, you are already doing more than enough. You are worthy—of love, respect, rest, and understanding. You are not invisible, even when the world feels like it’s passing you by.
This week, I want to introduce a concept that I suspect will come up again and again in future discussions. It’s one of those quiet, creeping forces that shapes how we respond to the world around us—especially when the world starts to shift in uncomfortable, even dangerous, directions.
It’s called normalcy bias.
What Is Normalcy Bias?
Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias—meaning it’s a pattern of distorted thinking that affects our perception and behavior. Specifically, this bias causes people to underestimate or ignore threats that disrupt the status quo. Faced with danger, change, or crisis, the brain instinctively clings to the belief that things will continue as they always have.
Researchers say around 80% of people exhibit this bias in crisis situations. Rather than prepare or act on a warning, they hesitate. They assume everything will be fine, because... it always has been. Until it isn’t.
This bias has many nicknames: analysis paralysis, the ostrich effect, and even negative panic (a term used by first responders). Amanda Ripley, in her eye-opening book The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes—and Why, outlines the typical response pattern for those caught in the grip of normalcy bias. She describes three psychological phases that determine whether a person will act—or freeze.
The Three Phases of Normalcy Bias
1. Denial:
This is the brain’s first line of defense. When presented with danger, it delays action while trying to process what’s happening. Under normal conditions, a calm human brain can make sense of new information in about 8–10 seconds. But when stress kicks in—particularly when cortisol floods the bloodstream—our ability to process slows dramatically.
To preserve some sense of stability, the brain pretends everything is fine. It seeks more information, even if that information won’t help. Ripley and other researchers describe a behavior common in natural disasters called milling—where people look to others for validation or direction. Even when given clear warnings from reliable sources, most people will check with at least four other sources before making a decision.
2. Deliberation:
This is the stage where we think we’re making decisions. But in reality, many of us are frozen in uncertainty. Our bodies are dealing with physiological stress responses: tunnel vision, audio exclusion, time distortion, even out-of-body sensations. Under this kind of pressure, rational thinking becomes a challenge.
We’re no longer asking, What should I do? We’re stuck in the fog of Can I even do anything at all?
3. Decisive Action:
This is the life-saving stage. It’s what separates survivors from victims in emergencies. The faster a person can move through denial and deliberation, the better their odds of survival. But here’s the hard truth: many people never make it to this phase. They stay stuck—waiting, hoping, or simply unable to believe that action is necessary.
In the context of disasters, this can be fatal.
Historical Accounts of Normalcy Bias
Understanding normalcy bias is crucial, but seeing it in action throughout history underscores its significance.
Pompeii, 79 AD: Residents of Pompeii ignored increasing seismic activity and signs of volcanic eruption, believing it was just another normal event. When Mount Vesuvius erupted, many were caught unprepared, leading to thousands of deaths.
Titanic, 1912: Passengers aboard the Titanic dismissed early signs of danger, convinced the ship was unsinkable. This belief contributed to inadequate preparation and a high death toll when disaster struck.
Hurricane Katrina, 2005: Many residents of New Orleans ignored evacuation orders, believing the storm would pass as others had. The result was catastrophic flooding and loss of life.
COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020: Early in the pandemic, many governments and individuals downplayed the severity of the virus, leading to delayed responses and widespread impact.This would include none other than the felonious ferrets regime itself.
These are but a few of the examples through our history that illustrate how normalcy bias can lead to tragic outcomes when warnings are ignored or underestimated.
What Does This Have to Do With Politics?
Everything.
Our current political landscape is not immune to this kind of psychological inertia. In fact, it’s thriving on it. If the data holds true—if 80% of people exhibit normalcy bias—it means most of us are still in the denial or deliberation stages. We’re seeking more information. We’re confused, unsure, overwhelmed. We want to believe things are still normal. That the democratic guardrails will hold. That the institutions will check themselves. That compromise will emerge if we just wait long enough.
I’ve seen it myself. People—good, well-intentioned people—urging patience, calling for cooperation, waiting to see “what he really intends to do.” Even as red flags wave frantically in our faces.
But waiting is not always wisdom. Sometimes, waiting is just another form of denial. Too many of us, myself included perhaps, have been willing to say well we will set things right in the midterms or the next presidential. But that is the normalcy bias talking friends. If we want to survive this dumpster fire reality we have found ourselves in, its time to get moving. Now. Not when the Tsunami is 50 feet from you. By that point you are already drowned.
Moving Forward: From Awareness to Action
Understanding normalcy bias is the first step in overcoming it. If we know that our brains are wired to cling to the illusion of normalcy, then we can begin to challenge that instinct. We can move more quickly through denial. We can recognize the paralysis of deliberation. And, most importantly, we can act.
Not out of panic. Not out of fear. But out of clarity.
Because if there’s one thing history teaches us, it’s that ignoring warning signs doesn’t make them disappear. It only makes the consequences hit harder when they arrive.
So, my dear defenders of justice: keep asking questions. Keep seeking truth. But don’t let yourself get stuck in the cycle of waiting. The time for decisive action—whatever that looks like for you—might be now.
Until our next bold move,
Lady LiberTea